AI and the Future: Part 4 What are we all going to do?

Over the last few weeks I have talked about AI and the impact it will have on jobs, and that in itself raises a number of other serious questions.

If AI essentially replaces us and we have no jobs left to do, what will happen to society? Universal basic income may have to support us all. As per my recruitment example in the last blog, the companies that get this right will use AI and AI agents to significantly improve their activity and output, but on a lower cost base as their payroll costs plummet. Governments will have to consider  tax reform in an AI driven society, for example taxing companies for each worker they displace because the cost of UBI would be huge.

And imagine a society where you didn’t have to work? What would we all do?! I suspect we would all pursue the hobbies and interests that we currently squeeze into our spare time around our jobs. For me I would do a lot of running and gardening. I think we would all spend a lot more time outside, the rise of tech and AI would probably produce a human response where we all want to reconnect with nature and each other. Leisure, hospitality, travel and tourism industries would explode, as we all eat out, meet up, socially engage and play padel. Stress related illnesses would likely decline, health and wellbeing would improve as we all have time to focus on ourselves.

Would kids go to school?

The economics of labour markets follow a general principle that intelligence and aptitude win the most skilled and highest paid roles.

Imagine a world where intelligence can be purchased. It might be coming. Already anyone with the internet can access Chat GPT and can find out about anything, instantly. Elon Musk is developing neuralink, he is famous for his moonshot business ideas, but nowadays it does not seem that outlandish that a chip will be developed that could be implanted in the skull, to integrate with your brain. Imagine programming that chip with everything. Imagine having Chat GPT in your head. Those labour market principles of intelligence acquisition would go out of the window, if we are all as intelligent as one another and we all know the same information, how do we become more employable, how would I beat you to a job? Will emotional intelligence become the differentiating factor in employability, or will it not really matter anyway because there are no jobs left for humans?

Here is another question  in the moral minefield, if you could buy intelligence would you buy it for your child? And at what age? Imagine there is “ultimate knowledge” chip available on the market for £1000, installation is painless and comes at no extra charge. Would you buy it? Aren’t you revoking their childhood innocence by purchasing their intelligence? I wouldn’t want my 7 year old using their chip to wonder about the holocaust or about the logistics of Santa Claus’ commitments on 24^th December. But how about buying the chip for my 16 year before her GCSEs?, or maybe the chip is legally only available at the age of 18, at which point intelligence is effectively equalized for all adults. Is there any point in buying the chip if there is no advantage in the labour market to being intelligent, as a: there are no jobs to compete for, and b: everyone is just as intelligent and knowledgeable as you.

And what about recruiters, when will I lose my job!? It is variable depending on the market you are in, but I think recruiters unfortunately face a dual threat. Firstly, as Flo pointed out to me, if AI is replacing humans in the workplace, there will be fewer jobs and so less opportunities to place humans. In effect recruiters will be replaced by sellers of technology, because those sellers are selling a product that is better than our product. But additionally AI will start to get better at doing the job of an actual recruiter.

Its not quite as simple as the translator or lawyer examples, yes recruiters rely on some knowledge, for example of employment law, marketplace trends and professional regulation, but a large part of our job is networking and relationship building which requires a high level of emotional intelligence. I’m generally sceptical of the concept of an AI sales agent, because I think generally speaking humans want to do business with humans, but if humans can fall in love with AI friends, there is no reason why they wouldn’t build business relationships with AI sales agents. So what can AI do currently in recruitment? Well like any profession, there are absolutely elements of my job that it can do better than me. As per above, Chat GPT helped me write software programmes to format CVs, to add notes to my CRM system and to scrape the web to compile a list of target clients. I use it to write adverts and marketing campaigns. But probably the most advanced recruiter type task it can do is to assess candidate suitability for roles. I can create a project folder and upload the brief and person spec. I can then write an automation that: scans my inbox for applications for a specific role (ask applicants to quote the job title or reference number when they apply), save their CV into a certain folder, at the end of each day collate all CVs into a zip folder, upload that zip folder to the relevant project on Chat GPT, ask Chat GPT to send me a report assessing suitability or ranking candidates based on how their CV compares to the job brief. I could enrich the process by having 30 minute calls with each candidate and uploading the interview notes into the same folder for Chat GPT to also take into account when providing suitability assessments.

This is not something I have done yet, but it is something I would have the option to do as we do more and more permanent recruitment in private healthcare. And it creates a moral quandary. What exactly is a client paying for here? Are they not paying for our professional judgment on candidate suitability? Or is AI way better than me at my job anyway so I may aswell just defer to it? Could a client implement these solutions themselves when they are hiring? Of course, but perhaps they don’t have the systems or know how, so in effect they are paying us because we do?

Impressive though that it is, AI it can’t do everything I do and stitch it all together. How far away is that as a concept? Possibly only 2-3 years says Chat GPT. AI is not yet at a level where there is a cross platform agent, that can work across databases, email, LinkedIn, advertising platforms etc, in a coordinated way. But we might be only a few years away from me being able to give a fairly broad objective, such as “Please map all orthopaedic consultants in Scandinavia. Make contact and find which are open to intentional opportunities. Market those candidates to private hospitals in Qatar”. That would be a 2-3 month project for me, taking a few hours a day, but 80% of the tasks within that project could be handled autonomously for me. I might soon find myself in a race with other recruiters to adopt AI to do my job, trying to work in a dwindling number of professions where humans are still considered better than AI at doing the job.